An inevitable coronation?

With the words ”Because it’s your time and I hope you join me on this journey” Hillary Rodham Clinton was sent off on her second bid for the American presidency. When the former senator and secretary of state last embarked on her journey eight years ago, many commentators regarded her cruise to the nomination as nothing but a pro forma-ritual. However, her inevitability was hijacked by a charismatic first-term from Illinois named Barack Obama. This time around her candidacy is yet again stamped with the seal of inevitability and the question remains, is it warranted?

If the republican primary is packed to the brim with high-profile names such as Scott Walker, Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, the democratic field is its exact opposite. Thus far only four candidates have announced out of which only one can be described as a credible alternative Clinton. The independent senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont who many characterise as a socialist decided to throw his hat in the democratic ring a couple of months ago and will most likely run a decidedly populist campaign to the left of Clinton. While Sanders’s candidacy will serve to highlight issues otherwise unmentioned, his policy positions are far too leftwing and his donor base too sparse to yield him the nomination. Former governor Martin O’Malley of Maryland poses the only credible threat to Clinton’s candidacy. Governors are more likely than other officials to be elected president and O’Malley’s record of bipartisan and pragmatic governance has appeal to both parts of the ideological spectrum. However outside of Maryland and the northeast O’Malley’s name recognition is limited and coupled with Clinton’s extensive campaign infrastructure and national name recognition he has his work cut out for him.

That leaves former Rhode Island governor and senator Lincoln Chafee. Chafee served his state in the U.S senate as a republican before running for the governorship as an independent only to sign off with the democratic party after skipping his second term in the governor’s mansion. Chafee’s republican past poses an intractable obstacle along with a miniscule donor base and no name recognition which effectively disarms him in the campaign. His record , however, of reaching across the aisle and impressive electoral accomplishments make him an interesting addition to the field.

With the weak field in mind Clinton seems almost assured to be the nominee come next fall. However, recently her campaign has had to tackle alarmingly high disapproval numbers and a scandal involving her family’s foundation. Inevitability comes with a bull’s eye and both republicans and democrats will have their fire trained on her for the next 18 months. This goes to show that even though all signs point to Hillary Clinton being anointed the democratic standard bearer next fall, the ride will be far from easy.